Mining Supply Chain Trends: Sub-Saharan Africa

The main shifts this year are the rise of the Lobito corridor as a rival to the southern and eastern export routes, tighter state control over exports, and a slow recovery in South African rail.

Lobito is becoming a real alternative route. The Lobito route links the DRC and Zambia to Angola’s Atlantic coast. One analysis says it has cut mine-to-port transit from 35-45 days to 7-9 days, though many heavy loads still use Durban because of backhaul. That figure comes from a trade site, so treat it as indicative. Financing is also moving ahead: the African Development Bank approved a $255 million loan and a $10 million grant for Zambia’s part, including a new 500km rail link to Angola. The US side aims to break ground in 2026 and have rail running across northwestern Zambia by 2028. Some experts worry that shifting US policy could slow progress.

Resource nationalism is escalating.

The DRC is the clearest case:

• A joint ministerial order signed on 29 June 2026 prohibited exports of copper and cobalt concentrates. BMI argues the ban adds little, since the DRC has run a de facto ban since the mid-2010s with ad hoc exemptions, and the cobalt quota is the bigger constraint.

• The 2026 and 2027 cobalt quota is 87,000 tonnes of base quota plus 9,600 tonnes of strategic quota. BMI says the system hasn’t worked as intended, with cobalt prices mostly sideways as battery makers reduce cobalt use and Indonesian supply grows.

• Others are following: Ghana has a “no raw export” stance for certain minerals, and South Africa’s draft Mineral Resources Development Bill would mandate local beneficiation. Zambia is enforcing escalating local procurement quotas.

The binding constraint is domestic. Power deficits and logistics limit how much processing the DRC can actually do, so bans risk relocating the bottleneck rather than removing it

Mines are now judged as whole systems. Investors increasingly assess a mine together with its power, logistics and route to market, and offtake agreements, prepayments and take-or-pay logistics commitments have become central to project value. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act also rewards secure, traceable supply.

Volumes: Zambia is targeting more than 1 million tonnes of copper in 2026 and 1.2 million in 2027.

Sources: (AllAfrica.com; Skillings.net; mining.com; theasset.com)